Monday 10 January 2011

Artwiculate : who are the "Top 6"?

This post is simply to place factual, statistical evidence in front of those who have been persuaded that there is a "Top 6" (i.e. the top 6 winners) who "hoard crowns".

1. Why a Top 6?

We are told that there is an Artwiculate "Top 6" who indulge in "crown hoarding". What/who is this "Top 6"? Here are some facts (as at 10th January 2011) taken from the Artwiculate website.
#1 : 41 crowns
#2 : 36 crowns
#3 : 25 crowns
#4 : 25 crowns
#5 : 23 crowns
#6 : 19 crowns
#7 : 14 crowns
#8 : 13 crowns
#9 : 11 crowns
#10: 11 crowns


Interesting distribution. There's a gap of sixteen crowns between #1 and #3, and a gap of twenty-two crowns between #1 and #6. Yet there is only a gap of five crowns from #6 to #7, and only eight crowns separating #6 from #9 & #10. So why a "Top 6"? Why not a Top 7, 8, or even a Top 10?

There is a reason behind the "Top 6". It began (and those with long memories will remember this) as a "Top 5". However - for reasons it would be inappropriate to mention here - in the mind of its 'creator' it needed to be a "Top 6".

But please read on...

2. Patterns of play

To be meaningful, statistics need to have inconsistencies, inequalities and biases ironed out and/or a "compensatory algorithm" applied.

So looking a little closer at the "Top 10"...

#1 has been playing for a bit over half the time that Artwiculate has been around.
#2 and #3 have played pretty much the whole time, from September 2009.
#4 has been playing since the end of 2009, except for 2 - 3 weeks
#5 has been playing since the end of 2009, but has had longer away
#6 played since the end of 2009 but stopped in September 2010!!
____________________________________________
#7 has not played Artwiculate consistently or regularly since it began.
#9 stopped playing a long time ago.
#10 only plays occasionally.

When you examine "stats", produced regularly to demonstrate how many crowns the "Top 6" have gained in recent months, bear in mind that #6 has not played for months!

In fact, using statistical analysis, you see that - apart from #1, and perhaps #8 - the crowns gained by the leading 10 players reflect quite accurately their actual playing time. And there are several more players in the Top 20 who do not play any more, except perhaps occasionally. The statistical analysis would also apply to them.

I am well aware that this analysis doesn't prove why some regular players have not won more crowns. All it does prove is two things :
(1) There is no significant "Top 6"
(2) As a generalisation, playing time of the Top 20 reflects number of crowns, in maybe two-thirds of cases.

6 comments:

  1. source: http://artwiculate.com/top50/wins

    1
    @asim7asim41 wins
    2
    @SJHatzi34 wins
    3
    @harrarp26 wins
    4
    @TiddK25 wins
    5
    @JonPowles23 wins
    6
    @navinsasikumar19 wins
    7
    @zimmerjohn14 wins
    8
    @Ysabeluna13 wins
    9
    @lithiumzombie11 wins
    10
    @MaryJenkins11 wins
    11
    @mazpowles10 wins
    12
    @kado5610 wins

    ReplyDelete
  2. source: http://artwiculate.com/top50/wins

    1
    @asim7asim41 wins
    2
    @SJHatzi34 wins
    3
    @harrarp26 wins
    4
    @TiddK25 wins
    5
    @JonPowles23 wins
    6
    @navinsasikumar19 wins
    7
    @zimmerjohn14 wins
    8
    @Ysabeluna13 wins
    9
    @lithiumzombie11 wins
    10
    @MaryJenkins11 wins
    11
    @mazpowles10 wins
    12
    @kado5610 wins
    13
    @dmriver9 wins
    14
    @yearning4d_sky9 wins
    15
    @DarkHaikuMoon8 wins
    16
    @tama0017 wins
    17
    @Wifsie7 wins
    18
    @drchavi7 wins
    19
    @routermonkey7 wins
    20
    @catmar6047 wins
    21
    @DrMobs6 wins
    22
    @beezknez6 wins
    23
    @nedmw6 wins
    24
    @StarOfSavannah6 wins
    25
    @phocks6 wins
    26
    @caslexplorers5 wins
    27
    @helacious5 wins
    28
    @Charm475 wins
    29
    @OddlyStarry4 wins
    30
    @tWordBird4 wins
    31
    @californiakara4 wins
    32
    @TOCSY14 wins
    33
    @yopopodawn4 wins
    34
    @readsmallprint4 wins
    35
    @marcosarroyos3 wins
    36
    @lagadu1233 wins
    37
    @osmarjardim3 wins HE HE HE
    38
    @Tralala563 wins
    39
    @ultracutebot3 wins
    40
    @dsceiorg3 wins
    41
    @DaveCurry3 wins
    42
    @amanuel1873 wins
    43
    @smeedha3 wins
    44
    @19ish3 wins
    45
    @Christwitery3 wins
    46
    @bookdreamer3 wins
    47
    @baccatum3 wins
    48
    @NeelaVanam3 wins
    49
    @PuddleMonkey3 wins
    50
    @raindropforsale3 wins

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks Tidd,
    I thought I would share with you guys the all time world series title wins for major league baseball.
    #1) 27 wins
    #2) 10 wins
    #3) 9 wins
    #4) 7 wins
    #5) 6 wins
    #6) 6 wins
    #7) 5 wins
    #8) 5 wins
    #9) 4 wins
    #10) 3 wins

    I think they call this the Yankee Train!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Very good, very sensible, Tidd. And clever not to waste any more energy taking on Mr Nutcase himself, but instead setting out th facts for those who might be tempted to give his "theories" half a moment's thought.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thank you all for responding (and for fleshing out my supposedly anonymous statistics, Osmar!)

    Yes Jon - that was the intention :-) I will also have something to say (probably at GS) about the single incident that prompted the whole "train" allegations.

    ReplyDelete